Preseason Rankings
St. Francis (PA)
Northeast
2018-19
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.3#160
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#178
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#259
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.7% 51.9% 37.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.2 15.0
.500 or above 80.4% 94.7% 77.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.5% 97.2% 91.6%
Conference Champion 43.2% 58.0% 40.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.0% 0.8%
First Four8.8% 4.2% 9.7%
First Round35.7% 50.1% 33.0%
Second Round3.2% 6.7% 2.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 2.3% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Buffalo (Away) - 15.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0.1 - 2.20.1 - 2.2
Quad 1b0.1 - 0.80.2 - 3.0
Quad 20.3 - 1.00.5 - 4.0
Quad 32.2 - 2.72.7 - 6.7
Quad 414.0 - 3.716.6 - 10.4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2018 65   @ Buffalo L 77-85 16%    
  Nov 09, 2018 339   Morgan St. W 81-68 93%    
  Nov 16, 2018 50   @ UCLA L 75-84 13%    
  Nov 19, 2018 6   @ North Carolina L 71-89 3%    
  Nov 24, 2018 20   @ Virginia Tech L 71-84 8%    
  Nov 30, 2018 268   Niagara W 85-79 79%    
  Dec 04, 2018 242   @ American W 75-70 55%    
  Dec 09, 2018 239   @ Delaware W 74-69 56%    
  Dec 22, 2018 185   @ Lehigh W 79-78 44%    
  Jan 03, 2019 331   Mount St. Mary's W 76-64 90%    
  Jan 05, 2019 252   Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-76 76%    
  Jan 10, 2019 225   @ LIU Brooklyn W 81-77 54%    
  Jan 12, 2019 318   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-70 71%    
  Jan 19, 2019 313   @ Central Connecticut St. W 75-66 69%    
  Jan 21, 2019 315   @ Bryant W 83-74 70%    
  Jan 24, 2019 215   Wagner W 74-70 71%    
  Jan 26, 2019 324   Sacred Heart W 79-69 86%    
  Jan 31, 2019 233   @ Robert Morris W 75-71 55%    
  Feb 02, 2019 331   @ Mount St. Mary's W 76-64 77%    
  Feb 07, 2019 313   Central Connecticut St. W 75-66 84%    
  Feb 09, 2019 315   Bryant W 83-74 85%    
  Feb 14, 2019 252   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 81-76 58%    
  Feb 16, 2019 233   Robert Morris W 75-71 73%    
  Feb 21, 2019 318   St. Francis Brooklyn W 80-70 85%    
  Feb 23, 2019 225   LIU Brooklyn W 81-77 72%    
  Feb 28, 2019 215   @ Wagner W 74-70 51%    
  Mar 02, 2019 324   @ Sacred Heart W 79-69 73%    
Projected Record 16.6 - 10.4 13.0 - 5.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 7.8 10.3 9.9 6.7 3.1 43.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.5 6.7 5.8 2.5 0.4 21.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 3.1 3.0 1.1 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.2 2.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.0 6.7 9.1 11.3 13.4 14.0 12.9 10.3 6.7 3.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.1    3.1
17-1 100.0% 6.7    6.6 0.1
16-2 96.4% 9.9    9.0 0.9
15-3 80.5% 10.3    7.6 2.6 0.2
14-4 55.6% 7.8    4.4 2.8 0.6 0.0
13-5 30.9% 4.2    1.4 1.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 9.5% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 43.2% 43.2 32.3 8.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.1% 89.1% 88.5% 0.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.3 4.7%
17-1 6.7% 79.9% 79.6% 0.2% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.2 1.4 1.1%
16-2 10.3% 70.8% 70.8% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 2.7 0.9 3.0 0.0%
15-3 12.9% 55.9% 55.9% 15.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 3.0 2.3 5.7
14-4 14.0% 43.9% 43.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 3.2 7.9
13-5 13.4% 35.3% 35.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.4 8.7
12-6 11.3% 26.8% 26.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.7 8.3
11-7 9.1% 15.8% 15.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 7.7
10-8 6.7% 14.5% 14.5% 16.0 0.0 0.9 5.7
9-9 5.0% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5 4.5
8-10 3.3% 7.2% 7.2% 16.0 0.2 3.1
7-11 2.0% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.1
5-13 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 3.9% 3.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 39.7% 39.7% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 7.2 11.0 15.8 60.3 0.1%